Routine care for people with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes before and during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic - results from the German Disease Analyzer database.

AIM: To investigate whether the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic affected care for people with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes in Germany. METHODS: The Disease Analyzer database (IQVIA, Germany) contains routine data on diagnoses and treatments (ICD-10 and ATC codes) from patients followed in selected physician practices across Germany. We compared 21,747 individuals with a first diagnosis of type 2 diabetes between January 2018 and September 2019 with 20,513 individuals with a first diabetes diagnosis between March 2020 and November 2021. RESULTS: In March and April 2020, the number of new diagnoses of diabetes decreased by 18.3% and 35.7%, respectively, compared to March and April of the previous two years. The previous diabetes incidence level was reached again in June 2020. Mean pre-treatment glucose levels were higher during the pandemic than before (fasting plasma glucose: +6.3 mg/dl (95% confidence interval: 4.6-8.0)). In the first six months after diabetes diagnosis, the mean number of GP visits, specialist referrals and HbA1c measurements decreased. CONCLUSION: We observed a decrease in diabetes incidence in the early phase of the pandemic and slightly higher pretreatment blood glucose levels during the pandemic than before. Care for newly diagnosed diabetes was slightly worse during the pandemic than before.

Excess mortality during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in the City of Frankfurt/Main, Germany, in 2020 and 2021, adjusted for age trends and pandemic phases.

Aims: Excess mortality during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has been studied in many countries. Accounting for population aging has important implications for excess mortality estimates. We show the importance of adjustment for age trends in a small-scale mortality analysis as well as the importance of analysing different pandemic phases for mortality in an urban population. Methods: Population data for Frankfurt/Main for 2016-2021 were obtained from the Municipal Office of Statistics, City of Frankfurt/Main. Mortality data from 2016 to 2021 were provided by the Hessian State Authority. For standardized mortality ratios (SMR=observed number of deaths divided by the expected number of deaths), the expected number of deaths was calculated in two ways: For SMRcrude, the mean mortality rate from the years 2016-2019 was multiplied by the total number of residents in 2020 and 2021 separately. For SMRadjusted, this procedure was performed separately for five age groups, and the numbers of expected deaths per age group were added. Results: SMRcrude was 1.006 (95% CI: 0.980-1.031) in 2020, and 1.047 (95% CI: 1.021-1.073) in 2021. SMRadjusted was 0.976 (95% CI: 0.951-1.001) in 2020 and 0.998 (95% CI: 0.973-1.023) in 2021. Excess mortality was observed during pandemic wave 2, but not during pandemic waves 1 and 3. Conclusion: Taking the aging of the population into account, no excess mortality was observed in Frankfurt/Main in 2020 and 2021. Without adjusting for population aging trends in Frankfurt /Main, mortality would have been greatly overestimated.

Estimates of excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic strongly depend on subjective methodological choices.

Excess mortality is often used to assess the health impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. It involves comparing the number of deaths observed during the pandemic with the number of deaths that would counterfactually have been expected in the absence of the pandemic. However, published data on excess mortality often vary even for the same country. The reason for these discrepancies is that the estimation of excess mortality involves a number of subjective methodological choices. The aim of this paper was to summarize these subjective choices. In several publications, excess mortality was overestimated because population aging was not adjusted for. Another important reason for different estimates of excess mortality is the choice of different pre-pandemic reference periods that are used to estimate the expected number of deaths (e.g., only 2019 or 2015-2019). Other reasons for divergent results include different choices of index periods (e.g., 2020 or 2020-2021), different modeling to determine expected mortality rates (e.g., averaging mortality rates from previous years or using linear trends), the issue of accounting for irregular risk factors such as heat waves and seasonal influenza, and differences in the quality of the data used. We suggest that future studies present the results not only for a single set of analytic choices, but also for sets with different analytic choices, so that the dependence of the results on these choices becomes explicit.

On the gap between objective and perceived risks of COVID-19.

A survey conducted by the German Socio-Economic Panel during the early phase of the SARS-CoV­2 pandemic in spring 2020 showed that the perceived risks of SARS-CoV­2 infection were a massive overestimation of the actual risks. A total of 5783 people (2.3% missing data) stated how likely they thought it was that SARS-CoV­2 would cause a life-threatening illness in them in the next 12 months. The average subjective probability was 26%. We consider how such an overestimation could have occurred and how a more realistic risk assessment could be achieved in the population in a future pandemic. We show that qualitative attributes of the pandemic, the reporting of the media, and psychological features may have contributed to the overestimation of SARS-CoV­2 risks. In its early stages, the SARS-CoV­2 pandemic had qualitative characteristics known to lead to an overestimation of risks: The risks associated with the pandemic were new, unfamiliar, perceived as poorly controllable, and were taken involuntarily. Phenomena known from cognitive psychology such as the availability and anchor heuristics can also explain the overestimation of pandemic risks. Characteristics of media coverage such as the focus on individual fates and the associated neglect of the denominator also contributed to the gap between perceived and objective risk. In a potential future pandemic, people need to be vigilant but not in a panic. Better risk communication-for example, with better prepared figures and graphically presented percentages while avoiding the denominator neglect-could help the population to perceive risks of future pandemics more realistically.

[Factors Influencing Results of Mortality Measurement in the Corona Pandemic: Analyses of Mortality in Germany in 2020]. / Einflussfaktoren auf Ergebnisse der Sterblichkeitsmessung in der Corona-Pandemie: Auswertungen zur Sterblichkeit in Deutschland im Jahr 2020.

INTRODUCTION: (Excess) mortality and years of life lost are important measures of health risks from the Corona pandemic. The aim of this paper was to identify methodological factors that affect the calculation of mortality and further to point out possible misinterpretations of years of life lost. METHODOLOGY: Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) can be used to compare mortalities (e. g., an SMR of 1.015 means excess mortality of 1.5%, an SMR of 0.990 means that mortality is reduced by 1.0%). In this study, SMRs as a measure of association for mortality in Germany were calculated for 2020 using different methods. In particular, the influence of different data sources and reference periods was examined. Furthermore, its influence on the calculated mortality was also examined to take into account increasing life expectancy. In addition, published results on years of life lost were critically analyzed. RESULTS: Using January 2022 data from the Federal Statistical Office on mortality for 5-year age groups resulted in higher SMR values than using preliminary data from February 2021 with 20-year age groups (SMR=0.997, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.995-0.999 versus SMR=0.976 (95% CI: 0.974-0.978)). The choice of the reference period had a large impact on calculated mortality (for men, SMR=1.024 (95% CI: 1.022-1.027) with 2019 as the reference year versus SMR=0.998 (95% CI: 0.996-1.001) with 2016 to 2019 as the reference period). Analyses in which declining mortality in 2016 to 2019 was carried forward into 2020 when calculating expected deaths resulted in significantly higher SMR values (for men SMR=1.024 (95% CI: 1.021-1.026) with, and SMR=0.998 (95% CI: 0.996-1.001) without carrying forward declining mortality). Figures for pandemic-related years of life lost per person who died from COVID-19 should be interpreted with caution: Calculation from remaining life reported in mortality tables can lead to misleading results. CONCLUSION: When calculating mortality and years of life lost during the pandemic, a number of methodological assumptions must be made that have a significant impact on the results and must be considered when interpreting the results.

Low impact of regular PCR testing on presence at work site during the COVID-19 pandemic: experiences during an open observational study in Lower Saxony 2020-21.

BACKGROUND: Since social distancing during the COVID-19-pandemic had a profound impact on professional life, this study investigated the effect of PCR testing on on-site work. METHODS: PCR screening, antibody testing, and questionnaires offered to 4,890 working adults in Lower Saxony were accompanied by data collection on demographics, family status, comorbidities, social situation, health-related behavior, and the number of work-related contacts. Relative risks (RR) with 95 % confidence intervals were estimated for the associations between regular PCR testing and other work and health-related variables, respectively, and working on-site. Analyses were stratified by the suitability of work tasks for mobile office. RESULTS: Between April 2020 and February 2021, 1,643 employees underwent PCR testing. Whether mobile working was possible strongly influenced the work behavior. Persons whose work was suitable for mobile office (mobile workers) had a lower probability of working on-site than persons whose work was not suitable for mobile office (RR = 0.09 (95 % CI: 0.07 - 0.12)). In mobile workers, regular PCR-testing was slightly associated with working on-site (RR = 1.19 (0.66; 2.14)). In those whose working place was unsuitable for mobile office, the corresponding RR was 0.94 (0.80; 1.09). Compared to persons without chronic diseases, chronically ill persons worked less often on-site if their workplace was suitable for mobile office (RR = 0.73 (0.40; 1.33)), but even more often if their workplace was not suitable for mobile office (RR = 1.17 (1.04; 1.33)). CONCLUSION: If work was suitable for mobile office, regular PCR-testing did not have a strong effect on presence at the work site. TRIAL REGISTRATION: An ethics vote of the responsible medical association (Lower Saxony, Germany) retrospectively approved the evaluation of the collected subject data in a pseudonymized form in the context of medical studies (No. Bo/30/2020; Bo/31/2020; Bo/32/2020).

Pediatric ICU Admissions After Adolescent Suicide Attempts During the Pandemic.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The worldwide severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 pandemic challenges adolescents' mental health. In this study, we aim to compare the number of pediatric ICU (PICU) admissions after suicide attempts during the first German lockdown and one year later during a second, prolonged lockdown with prepandemic years. METHODS: A retrospective multicenter study was conducted among 27 German PICUs. Cases <18 years admitted to the PICU because of accidents or injuries between March 16 and May 31 of 2017 to 2021 were identified based on International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision codes (German modification) and patient data entered into a database. This study is a subset analysis on suicide attempts in adolescents aged 12 to 17.9 years. The Federal Statistics Office was queried for data on fatal suicides, which were available only for 2020 in adolescents aged 10 to 17.9 years. RESULTS: Total admissions and suicide attempts declined during the first lockdown in 2020 (standardized morbidity ratio 0.74 (95% confidence interval; 0.58-0.92) and 0.69 (0.43-1.04), respectively) and increased in 2021 (standardized morbidity ratio 2.14 [1.86-2.45] and 2.84 [2.29-3.49], respectively). Fatal suicide rates remained stable between 2017 to 2019 and 2020 (1.57 vs 1.48 per 100 000 adolescent years) with monthly numbers showing no clear trend during the course of 2020. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows a strong increase in serious suicide attempts among adolescents during the course of the pandemic in Germany. More research is needed to understand the relation between pandemic prevention measures and suicidal ideation to help implement mental health support for adolescents.

Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on clinically diagnosed psychiatric disorders in persons with type 2 diabetes.

AIMS: To examine whether the incidence rates of diagnosed depression, anxiety disorders and stress reactions, as well as prescription rates of antidepressants and anxiolytics were higher during the COVID-19 pandemic than before in persons with type 2 diabetes in Germany. Contrary to earlier studies, clinical diagnoses of psychiatric disorders (ICD classification) were used. METHODS: The German Disease Analyzer (DA) database is an outpatient database containing routine data on patients´ diseases and treatments provided by a representative panel of physician practices selected from across Germany. We assessed incidence rates of depressive disorders (ICD-10: F32, F33), anxiety disorders (F41) and stress reactions (F43) in quarters from January 2019 to March 2021 in 95,765 people with type 2 diabetes included in the DA in 2019 (mean age 68.9 years, 58% men). Prescription rates of antidepressants and anxiolytics in quarters from January 2020 to March 2021 were compared with prescription rates from 1 year earlier. RESULTS: During the study period, the incidence rate of newly diagnosed depressive disorders in persons with type 2 diabetes declined slightly, while the incidence rates of anxiety and stress disorders remained largely constant. The rates of new prescriptions for antidepressants and anxiolytics were lower in all quarters of 2020 and in the first quarter of 2021 than in the quarters 1 year earlier. Diabetes-related complications were more prevalent in persons with incident psychiatric disorders than in those without. CONCLUSIONS: No increase in the incidence rates of clinically diagnosed psychiatric disorders was observed during the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany in persons with type 2 diabetes.

Impact of the First COVID Lockdown on Accident- and Injury-Related Pediatric Intensive Care Admissions in Germany-A Multicenter Study.

Children's and adolescents' lives drastically changed during COVID lockdowns worldwide. To compare accident- and injury-related admissions to pediatric intensive care units (PICU) during the first German COVID lockdown with previous years, we conducted a retrospective multicenter study among 37 PICUs (21.5% of German PICU capacities). A total of 1444 admissions after accidents or injuries during the first lockdown period and matched periods of 2017-2019 were reported and standardized morbidity ratios (SMR) were calculated. Total PICU admissions due to accidents/injuries declined from an average of 366 to 346 (SMR 0.95 (CI 0.85-1.05)). Admissions with trauma increased from 196 to 212 (1.07 (0.93-1.23). Traffic accidents and school/kindergarten accidents decreased (0.77 (0.57-1.02 and 0.26 (0.05-0.75)), whereas household and leisure accidents increased (1.33 (1.06-1.66) and 1.34 (1.06-1.67)). Less neurosurgeries and more visceral surgeries were performed (0.69 (0.38-1.16) and 2.09 (1.19-3.39)). Non-accidental non-suicidal injuries declined (0.73 (0.42-1.17)). Suicide attempts increased in adolescent boys (1.38 (0.51-3.02)), but decreased in adolescent girls (0.56 (0.32-0.79)). In summary, changed trauma mechanisms entailed different surgeries compared to previous years. We found no evidence for an increase in child abuse cases requiring intensive care. The increase in suicide attempts among boys demands investigation.

Calculating the number of undetected active SARS-CoV-2 infections from results of population-wide antigen tests.

Current European research estimates the number of undetected active SARS-CoV-2 infections (dark figure) to be two- to 130-fold the number of detected cases. We revisited the population-wide antigen tests in Slovakia and South Tyrol and calculated the dark figure of active cases in the vulnerable populations and the number of undetected active cases per detected active case at the time of the population-wide tests. Our analysis follows three steps: using the sensitivities and specificities of the used antigen tests, we first calculated the number of test-positive individuals and the proportion of actual positives in those who participated in the antigen tests. We then calculated the dark figure in the total population of Slovakia and South Tyrol, respectively. Finally, we calculated the ratio of the dark figure in the vulnerable population to the number of newly detected infections through PCR tests. Per one positive PCR result, another 0.15 to 0.71 cases must be added in South Tyrol and 0.01 to 1.25 cases in Slovakia. The dark figure was in both countries lower than assumed by earlier studies.

Effects of the COVID-19 lockdown on primary health care for persons with type 2 diabetes - Results from the German Disease Analyzer database.

OBJECTIVES: To identify the effects of the first lockdown in Germany (March to May 2020) on glycemic control, BMI, and cardiovascular risk factors in persons with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: The nationwide Disease Analyzer database includes a representative panel of physicians practices in Germany providing anonymized real-world patient data. For metabolic and renal factors, we estimated absolute changes of means comparing outcomes from June to November 2020 to outcomes in the same persons from June to November 2019, and June to November 2018, respectively. RESULTS: In 32,399 patients with type 2 diabetes, HbA1c change between 2019 and 2020 was + 0.04% (95 %CI: 0.03%; 0.05%) compared to -0.02% (95 %CI: -0.03%; -0.01%) between 2018 and 2019. Metabolic risk factors and creatinine changed only little between June to November 2019 and June to November 2020. The proportions of patients with BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2 were 56%, 55%, and 54% in June to November 2018, 2019, and 2020, respectively. The corresponding proportions for HbA1c > 53 mmol/mol Hb (>7.0%) were 39%, 39%, and 40%. CONCLUSIONS: There is little evidence that the first COVID-19 lockdown in Germany had a short-term harmful influence on acute health care outcomes and vascular risk factors in people with type 2 diabetes.

Excess mortality due to Covid-19? A comparison of total mortality in 2020 with total mortality in 2016 to 2019 in Germany, Sweden and Spain.

INTRODUCTION: Excess mortality is a suitable indicator of health consequences of COVID-19 because death from any cause is clearly defined contrary to death from Covid-19. We compared the overall mortality in 2020 with the overall mortality in 2016 to 2019 in Germany, Sweden and Spain. Contrary to other studies, we also took the demographic development between 2016 and 2020 and increasing life expectancy into account. METHODS: Using death and population figures from the EUROSTAT database, we estimated weekly and cumulative Standardized Mortality Ratios (SMR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the year 2020. We applied two approaches to calculate weekly numbers of death expected in 2020: first, we used mean weekly mortality rates from 2016 to 2019 as expected mortality rates for 2020, and, second, to consider increasing life expectancy, we calculated expected mortality rates for 2020 by extrapolation from mortality rates from 2016 to 2019. RESULTS: In the first approach, the cumulative SMRs show that in Germany and Sweden there was no or little excess mortality in 2020 (SMR = 0.976 (95% CI: 0.974-0.978), and 1.030 (1.023-1.036), respectively), while in Spain the excess mortality was 14.8% (1.148 (1.144-1.151)). In the second approach, the corresponding SMRs for Germany and Sweden increased to 1.009 (1.007-1.011) and 1.083 (1.076-1.090), respectively, whereas results for Spain were virtually unchanged. CONCLUSION: In 2020, there was barely any excess mortality in Germany for both approaches. In Sweden, excess mortality was 3% without, and 8% with consideration of increasing life expectancy.

Excess mortality due to COVID-19 in Germany.

OBJECTIVES: The first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Germany lasted from week 10 to 23 in 2020. The aim is to provide estimates of excess mortality in Germany during this time. METHODS: We analyzed age-specific numbers of deaths per week from 2016 to week 26 in 2020. We used weekly mean numbers of deaths of 2016-2019 to estimate expected weekly numbers for 2020. We estimated standardized mortality ratios (SMR) and 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: During the first wave observed numbers of deaths were higher than expected for age groups 60-69, 80-89, and 90+. The age group 70-79 years did not show excess mortality. The net excess number of deaths for weeks 10-23 was +8,071. The overall SMR was 1•03 (95%CI 1•03-1•04). The largest increase occurred among people aged 80-89 and 90+ (SMR=1•08 and SMR=1•09). A sensitivity analysis that accounts for demographic changes revealed an overall SMR of 0•98 (95%CI 0•98-0•99) and a deficit of 4,926 deaths for week 10-23, 2020. CONCLUSIONS: The excess mortality existed for two months. The favorable course of the first wave may be explained by a younger age at infection at the beginning of the pandemic, lower contact rates, and a more efficient pandemic management.